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Time Averages, Climatic Change, and Predictability
Author(s) -
Burt James E.
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
geographical analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.773
H-Index - 65
eISSN - 1538-4632
pISSN - 0016-7363
DOI - 10.1111/j.1538-4632.1986.tb00102.x
Subject(s) - predictability , autoregressive model , multivariate statistics , econometrics , construct (python library) , computer science , transformation (genetics) , climate change , climatology , statistics , mathematics , ecology , geology , biochemistry , chemistry , gene , programming language , biology
Traditional averaging procedures (e.g., annual average, climatic normals) are shown to have both theoretical and practical failings when used for prediction or for detection of small climatic changes. Transformation of a multivariate autoregressive process (predictable components analysis) provides a useful way to construct empirical functions capturing the dynamic behavior of climatic variables.