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Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation
Author(s) -
COGLEY TIMOTHY,
COLACITO RICCARDO,
HANSEN LARS PETER,
SARGENT THOMAS J.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
journal of money, credit and banking
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.763
H-Index - 108
eISSN - 1538-4616
pISSN - 0022-2879
DOI - 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00176.x
Subject(s) - robustness (evolution) , economics , econometrics , incentive , prior probability , unemployment , inflation (cosmology) , decision rule , mathematical economics , computer science , microeconomics , bayesian probability , macroeconomics , artificial intelligence , biochemistry , chemistry , physics , theoretical physics , gene
We study how a concern for robustness modifies a policymaker's incentive to experiment. A policymaker has a prior over two submodels of inflation‐unemployment dynamics. One submodel implies an exploitable trade‐off, the other does not. Bayes' law gives the policymaker an incentive to experiment. The policymaker fears that both submodels and his prior probability distribution over them are misspecified. We compute decision rules that are robust to misspecifications of each submodel and of the prior distribution over submodels. We compare robust rules to ones that Cogley, Colacito, and Sargent (2007) computed assuming that the models and the prior distribution are correctly specified. We explain how the policymaker's desires to protect against misspecifications of the submodels, on the one hand, and misspecifications of the prior over them, on the other, have different effects on the decision rule.