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Higher Vulnerable Elders Survey Scores Predict Death and Functional Decline in Vulnerable Older People
Author(s) -
Min Lillian C.,
Elliott Marc N.,
Wenger Neil S.,
Saliba Debra
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
journal of the american geriatrics society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.992
H-Index - 232
eISSN - 1532-5415
pISSN - 0002-8614
DOI - 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.00615.x
Subject(s) - medicine , gerontology , older people
OBJECTIVES: To examine whether the Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES‐13) score predicts risk of death and functional decline in vulnerable older adults. DESIGN: Longitudinal evaluation with mean follow‐up of 11 months (range 8–14 months). SETTING: Two managed care organizations in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Four hundred twenty community‐dwelling older people identified as having moderate to high risk of death and functional decline based on a VES‐13 score of 3 or higher. These older people were enrolled in the Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders observational study. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline: VES‐13 score, sex, income, cognitive score, and number of medical diagnoses. Outcome measures: functional decline and death. RESULTS: VES‐13 scores strongly predicted death and functional decline ( P< .001, area under the receiver operating curve=0.66). The estimated combined risk of death and decline rose with VES‐13 score, increasing from 23% for older people with a VES‐13 score of 3 to 60% for those with a score of 10. Other measures (sex, comorbidity) were not significant predictors of death or decline over this period after controlling for VES‐13 score. CONCLUSION: The VES‐13 score is useful as a screening tool to detect risk of health deterioration in already vulnerable older populations, and higher scores reflect greater risk over a short follow‐up period.