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Modelos Bayesianos de Área Reducida para Evaluar el Riesgo de Conservación de Vida Silvestre en Poblaciones Fragmentadas
Author(s) -
WILSON DUNCAN S.,
STODDARD MARGO A.,
BETTS MATTHEW G.,
PUETTMANN KLAUS J.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
conservation biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.2
H-Index - 222
eISSN - 1523-1739
pISSN - 0888-8892
DOI - 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01160.x
Subject(s) - habitat , wildlife , geography , wildlife conservation , ecology , range (aeronautics) , wildlife management , population , environmental science , biology , materials science , demography , sociology , composite material
Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third‐order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage‐scale effects. Cross‐validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.