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Contribuciones Relativas del Error de Muestreo en el Tamaño Poblacional Inicial y Tasas Vitales a los Resultados de Análisis de Población Poblacional
Author(s) -
McLOUGHLIN PHILIP D.,
MESSIER FRANÇOIS
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
conservation biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.2
H-Index - 222
eISSN - 1523-1739
pISSN - 0888-8892
DOI - 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00500.x
Subject(s) - vital rates , statistics , population , sampling (signal processing) , ursus , population size , variance (accounting) , sample size determination , population viability analysis , sampling error , grizzly bears , standard error , mathematics , demography , observational error , population growth , computer science , endangered species , sociology , accounting , filter (signal processing) , business , computer vision
We evaluated the relative contributions of sampling error (randomly chosen standard errors applied as 0–30% of parameter estimates) in initial population size and vital rates (survival and reproduction) to the outcome of a simulated population viability analysis for grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ). Error in initial population size accounted for the largest source of variation (model II analysis of variance, F 25,5 = 10.8, p = 0.00001) in simulation outcomes, explaining 60.5% of the variance. In contrast, error in vital rates contributed little to simulation outcomes ( F 25,5 = 0.61, p = 0.70), accounting for only 2.4% of model variation. Reduced global variation in vital rates, as a result of independent random sampling of annual deviates for each parameter, likely contributed to the results. Errors in estimates of initial population size, if ignored in PVA, have the potential to leave managers with estimates of population persistence that are of little value for making management decisions.