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A MODEL OF US CEREALS FOOD AID FLOWS WITH AN APPLICATION TO TRADE LIBERALISATION
Author(s) -
Gilbert Christopher L.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.157
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1477-9552
pISSN - 0021-857X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1996.tb00681.x
Subject(s) - liberalization , economics , stock (firearms) , food aid , agricultural economics , econometric model , food security , econometrics , international economics , agriculture , ecology , market economy , geography , biology , archaeology
This paper reports a model in which food aid flows are seen as the outcome of budget‐constrained resource allocation decisions. This framework allows the application of standard demand theory to structure an econometric model of the supply of food aid from the United States. Aid propensities out of public stocks remain high for wheat and rice, but not for maize. In addition, rice disbursements are price‐sensitive, in particular in relation to the price of rice relative to wheat. The model is used to examine some of the possible implications of trade liberalisation resulting from the Uruguay Round of the CA TT on food aid flows. These are dominated by stock effects, resulting in a possible fall in the volume of US food aid by 11 per cent to 14 per cent.