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THE EFFECT OF BSE ON THE REVENUE FROM BEEF FATSTOCK
Author(s) -
Mainland D. D.,
Ashworth S. W.
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.157
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1477-9552
pISSN - 0021-857X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1992.tb00202.x
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , econometrics , revenue , bovine spongiform encephalopathy , economics , regression analysis , regression , statistics , mathematics , time series , finance , prion protein , medicine , disease , pathology
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) has had a considerable effect on the revenues received from finished cattle in the UK. Forecasting models are used to measure the extent of the drop in revenues by determining what the price would have been under normal marketing conditions. The models used are a regression model, which, although representing a simplified view of the market, takes account of price expectations, and an ARIMA‐type model. Comparison between the forecasts of the two models forms part of the validation procedure. The results using the regression forecasts indicated a loss of 8.6 percent while the ARIMA forecasts indicated a loss of 11.8 percent over the year October 1989 to September 1990.