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POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MILK SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE US LAKE STATES
Author(s) -
Chavas J.P.,
Kraus A. F.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.157
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1477-9552
pISSN - 0021-857X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1990.tb00620.x
Subject(s) - economics , hay , population , agricultural economics , alfalfa hay , production (economics) , econometrics , microeconomics , zoology , biology , food science , rumen , demography , sociology , fermentation
This paper develops a dynamic model of a dairy cow population and of milk supply response. When applied to the US Lake States, the model provides evidence against the Nerlovian model. It suggests that the pattern of dynamic effects of prices on cow numbers varies for different prices. The estimated dynamic supply elasticities provide some useful information on the nature of dairy production adjustments. For example, the response of milk supply to market prices is found to be very inelastic in the short run. It takes at least 7 years of sustained change to obtain an elastic response to milk price. Also, feed price and slaughter cow price are found to have smaller effects on dairy supply than milk price, but larger effects than risk, hay price or capital cost.