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STRUCTURAL PROJECTIONS OF THE SCOTTISH DAIRY INDUSTRY USING MICRO AND MACRO MARKOV TRANSITION MATRICES
Author(s) -
Buckwell A. E.,
Shucksmith D. M.,
Young D. A.
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.157
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1477-9552
pISSN - 0021-857X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1983.tb00975.x
Subject(s) - macro , aggregate (composite) , markov chain , dairy industry , micro level , econometrics , transition (genetics) , aggregate data , computer science , operations research , agricultural economics , economics , mathematics , statistics , microeconomics , chemistry , food science , materials science , biochemistry , economic impact analysis , composite material , gene , programming language
This article analyses changes in the size‐structure of the dairy industry in the SMMB area. It compares the performance of projections based on easily available, aggregate data using well‐known computer routines with projections made from detailed, infrequently collected, farm‐level data. The paper suggests that although yields are continuing to rise this may no longer be sufficient to compensate for the loss of producers, so that there may be a fall in total milk output in the 1980s.