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WORLD ENERGY DEMAND AND CRUDE OIL PRICES TO THE YEAR 2000
Author(s) -
Pearce Professor David
Publication year - 1981
Publication title -
journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.157
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1477-9552
pISSN - 0021-857X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1981.tb01574.x
Subject(s) - economics , crude oil , energy demand , supply and demand , oil price , judgement , oil supply , peak oil , economy , natural resource economics , microeconomics , monetary economics , petroleum engineering , climate change , ecology , political science , law , engineering , biology
This paper takes an overall look at world energy demand forecasts contained in the recent literature. From the ‘consensus’ data the paper suggests a non‐communist world primary energy demand in 2000 of about 9,000 million tonnes oil equivalent. The focus then shifts to the demand for, and supply of, OPEC oil and it is argued that persistent excess demand will characterise this market for the remainder of the century. Observation of models of OPEC pricing behaviour suggests they are poor reflections of real world oil markets. As such, judgement rather than explicit modelling is used to suggest a world crude oil scenario in which oil prices rise at 10% p.a.