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Do Seniors Understand Their Risk of Moving to a Nursing Home?
Author(s) -
Taylor Donald H.,
Osterman Jan,
Will Acuff S.,
Østbye Truls
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
health services research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.706
H-Index - 121
eISSN - 1475-6773
pISSN - 0017-9124
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-6773.2005.00386.x
Subject(s) - baby boom , nursing homes , medicine , long term care , gerontology , asset (computer security) , nursing , environmental health , population , computer security , computer science
Objective. To determine whether seniors understand their risk of moving to a nursing home. Data Sources. We used longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) database. AHEAD is a nationally representative survey ( n =8,203) of community dwellers aged 70+ years and their spouses. Study Design. We followed respondents for 5 years from the date of the first interview fielded in 1993. Our primary dependent variable was whether respondents moved to a nursing home within 5 years of baseline; self‐assessed probability of moving to a nursing home within 5 years, also assessed at baseline, was the primary explanatory variable. Principal Findings. We found that seniors who believed they were more likely to move to a nursing home within 5 years were indeed more likely to do so, and that most elders overestimated their likelihood of moving to a nursing home. Conclusions. Low rates of private long‐term care insurance are not plausibly a result of seniors underestimating their personal risk of moving to a nursing home; such an assumption is inherent in many strategies to plan for the future long‐term care needs of the baby boom generation.