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If things can only get worse: Anticipation of enlargement in European Union legislative politics
Author(s) -
LEUFFEN DIRK,
HERTZ ROBIN
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
european journal of political research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.267
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1475-6765
pISSN - 0304-4130
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2009.01887.x
Subject(s) - anticipation (artificial intelligence) , legislature , politics , legislation , european union , political science , set (abstract data type) , resizing , member states , feature (linguistics) , political economy , economics , public economics , law and economics , law , international economics , computer science , artificial intelligence , linguistics , philosophy , programming language
Anticipation is a central feature of political behaviour. It has an impact on actors' choices and can change the timing of decisions. This article analyses anticipation in legislative politics. After delineating different objects as well as consequences of anticipation theoretically, a set of hypotheses about anticipatory behaviour in EU decision‐making is derived. In particular, it is asked whether the EU Council anticipates the arrival of new Member States and how this affects legislative output. The theory is tested by estimating count models using a dataset that contains information on all binding EU legislation from 1976 to 2007. Covering five enlargement rounds, evidence is presented for anticipatory behaviour in EU legislative politics.