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Assessing the validity of the logit method for ecological inference
Author(s) -
THOMSEN SOREN RISBJERG,
BERGLUND STEN,
WÖRLUND INGEMAR
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
european journal of political research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.267
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1475-6765
pISSN - 0304-4130
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1991.tb01197.x
Subject(s) - logit , inference , econometrics , external validity , danish , ecology , logistic regression , voting , ecological validity , economics , statistics , geography , mathematics , computer science , psychology , politics , political science , biology , artificial intelligence , law , cognition , neuroscience , linguistics , philosophy
. The logit method for ecological inference, presented by Thomsen in 1987, estimates individual level voting behaviour from aggregate election results. Making comparisons with survey results, this article tests the validity of ecological estimates of voter mobility between parties at three Danish, five Swedish and three Finnish election periods. For all three countries, the ecological estimates are rather close to survey results, but in the cases of Denmark and Sweden the validity of the ecological estimates seems lower than the validity of the survey results. However, for both countries, the differences between the ecological estimates and the survey results show a stable pattern which can be interpreted within the framework of a general logit theory.