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Normal Vote Analysis: A Methodological Note
Author(s) -
RATTINGER HANS,
FALTER JÜRGEN W.
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
european journal of political research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.267
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1475-6765
pISSN - 0304-4130
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1984.tb00089.x
Subject(s) - term (time) , voting , variance (accounting) , econometrics , variance decomposition of forecast errors , decomposition , statistics , mathematics , economics , political science , politics , law , ecology , physics , accounting , quantum mechanics , biology
By juxtaposing observed voting behaviour and voting expected due to partisan affiliations, normal vote analysis attempts to classify elections at the aggregate level and to estimate the impact of short‐term variables on the vote. Apart from graphical illustrations, this latter task is performed by the effect coefficients proposed by Boyd. This contribution demonstrates that these coefficients under certain circumstances can exaggerate the effect of short‐term influences on the vote, proposes a modified formula, and shows how normal vote analysis can be adapted to comprise the notion of statistically controlling for third short‐term forces. Finally, an attempt is made formally to relate the effect coefficients of normal vote analysis to the decomposition of variance in multiple regression analysis. It is demonstrated that such a formal relationship cannot be established, so that in terms of variance decomposition normal vote analysis is incapable of precisely and numerically comparing short‐term vs. long‐term influences on the vote, or of comparing short‐term effects across different variables or even across different samples.