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THE DISTRIBUTION OF SEATS IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AFTER DIRECT ELECTIONS: A SIMULATION STUDY *
Author(s) -
RATTINGER HANS,
ZÄNGLE MICHAEL,
ZINTL REINHARD
Publication year - 1977
Publication title -
european journal of political research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.267
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1475-6765
pISSN - 0304-4130
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1977.tb01288.x
Subject(s) - parliament , voting , general election , distribution (mathematics) , political science , voting behavior , political economy , public administration , economics , law , mathematics , politics , mathematical analysis
This article presents an overview of a project designed to simulate the distribution of seats in the European Parliament after the first direct elections in 1978. First, the data base and some basic assumptions are described which pertain to electoral systems, voter behavior, and realignments in party systems. Some illustrative results of simulation runs are summarized which proceed from voter preferences as expressed in the most recent national general elections in the nine member countries of the European Community. These findings are analyzed for individual parties and parliamentary fractions as well as with the chances for forming majority coalitions in mind. Finally, the effects of some likely shifts in voting patterns are considered assuming that current national electoral systems will be applied in 1978.