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BRITAIN'S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EEC: A PROFILE OF ELECTORAL OPINIONS IN THE SPRING OF 1974 – WITH A POSTSCRIPT ON THE REFERENDUM *
Author(s) -
SÄRLVIK BO,
CREWE IVOR,
ALT JAMES,
FOX ANTHONY
Publication year - 1976
Publication title -
european journal of political research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.267
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1475-6765
pISSN - 0304-4130
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1976.tb00790.x
Subject(s) - referendum , hindsight bias , general election , political science , brexit , public opinion , opinion poll , public administration , law , economics , psychology , social psychology , european union , politics , economic policy
The main part of this article was written well before the June 1975 referendum in Britain. As set out in the title, our objective was to draw a profile of electoral opinions during the months following the first of the two general elections in 1974. We furthermore attempted to discern and evaluate the factors that would be likely to determine the setting for the actual referendum. Rather than rewriting this analysis with the benefit of hindsight, we have chosen to present it here in a somewhat abridged form and with only minor changes in the text. The Postscript in this article contains an analysis of the referendum outcome in the light of our previous findings as well as more recent survey data. Our description of the public's views on the EEC in 1974 is mainly based on data drawn from a national survey conducted after the February 1974 election. For the analysis presented in the Postscript we are also able to draw on survey data collected after the October 1974 election as well as a survey carried out after the referendum. All of these surveys are part of a panel study. The picture that emerges from our data on the electorate in the spring of 1974 reflects a division of opinions that had changed dramatically in the past years and which could well change again. The shifts in the electorate's views on Britain's membership of the EEC that occurred during the 1960s and up to the election in February 1974 appear largely to reflect the various positions taken by major parties and, in particular, the policy of the government of the day. In the 1975 referendum, the Wilson Cabinet won a half‐way success in its attempt to swing the Labour vote in favour of the EEC against the views expressed by the Labour Party conference. Together with the massive support in the remaining part of the electorate, this was sufficient to secure a substantial majority for Britain's staying in the EEC.