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Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges *
Author(s) -
Leal Teresa,
Pérez Javier J.,
Tujula Mika,
Vidal JeanPierre
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
fiscal studies
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.63
H-Index - 40
eISSN - 1475-5890
pISSN - 0143-5671
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-5890.2008.00078.x
Subject(s) - stability and growth pact , context (archaeology) , economics , accountability , perspective (graphical) , politics , macroeconomics , fiscal policy , field (mathematics) , economic policy , public economics , political science , european union , member states , paleontology , artificial intelligence , biology , computer science , law , mathematics , pure mathematics
. While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in EU multilateral budgetary surveillance. In view of the increased prominence and sensitivity of budgetary forecasts, which may lead to them being influenced by strategic and political factors, this paper discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner's perspective and places them in the context of the related literature.