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Is Housing Activity a Leading Indicator? *
Author(s) -
PENM JAMMIE H.,
TERRELL R.D.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
economic record
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.365
H-Index - 42
eISSN - 1475-4932
pISSN - 0013-0249
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1994.tb01844.x
Subject(s) - linkage (software) , investment (military) , rest (music) , economics , economic indicator , macroeconomics , politics , political science , law , cardiology , gene , chemistry , medicine , biochemistry
We investigate whether housing activity is a leading indicator of general activity using two dynamic systems. In the national account system, the results indicate that dwelling investment contains leading information for gross national expenditure. In a five‐variable system including a measure of economic activity, housing activity, money, prices and a short‐term interest rate, housing activity is found to provide an important linkage between economic activity and the rest of the system. These results consistently affirm that housing activity is a leading indicator of general economic activity.