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Predicting the Monthly and Annual Current Account Balance from Provisional Data *
Author(s) -
BEWLEY RONALD,
PARRY THOMAS
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
economic record
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.365
H-Index - 42
eISSN - 1475-4932
pISSN - 0013-0249
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1991.tb02561.x
Subject(s) - current (fluid) , term (time) , balance (ability) , econometrics , balance equation , current account , statistics , mathematics , economics , macroeconomics , physics , psychology , thermodynamics , markov model , quantum mechanics , neuroscience , markov chain , exchange rate
This paper uses provisional monthly data to predict the one‐month‐ahead and one‐year‐ahead current account balance. Single‐equation methods are compared to an eight‐equation VAR model that utilizes the Box‐Tiao (1977) modifications. It is found that the single‐equation model of the current account out‐performs the system method for the short‐ term but the positions are reversed for the annual forecast