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Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment*
Author(s) -
MACFARLANE I. J.,
HAWKINS J. R.
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
economic record
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.365
H-Index - 42
eISSN - 1475-4932
pISSN - 0013-0249
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1983.tb00822.x
Subject(s) - ranking (information retrieval) , rank (graph theory) , order (exchange) , economics , econometrics , period (music) , actuarial science , computer science , mathematics , finance , information retrieval , combinatorics , physics , acoustics
This paper looks at the accuracy of economic forecasts in general and by examining a subset of 12 Australian, forecasters over a five‐year period. It also address the question of whether it is possible to rank forecasters in order of merit. The paper concludes that the problem are sufficiently large for it to be highly unlikely that a meaningful and stable ranking could be obtained.