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The reliability of an ‘off‐the‐shelf’ conceptual rainfall runoff model for use in climate impact assessment: uncertainty quantification using Latin hypercube sampling
Author(s) -
Murphy Conor,
Fealy Rowan,
Charlton Ro,
Sweeney John
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
area
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.958
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1475-4762
pISSN - 0004-0894
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-4762.2006.00656.x
Subject(s) - latin hypercube sampling , glue , sampling (signal processing) , surface runoff , uncertainty analysis , conceptual model , suite , environmental science , climate model , sensitivity analysis , uncertainty quantification , reliability (semiconductor) , computer science , climate change , meteorology , hydrology (agriculture) , statistics , mathematics , monte carlo method , simulation , geography , geology , engineering , filter (signal processing) , database , ecology , oceanography , archaeology , biology , power (physics) , quantum mechanics , computer vision , mechanical engineering , physics , geotechnical engineering
Much uncertainty is derived from the application of conceptual rainfall runoff models. In this paper, HYSIM, an ‘off‐the‐shelf’ conceptual rainfall runoff model, is applied to a suite of catchments throughout Ireland in preparation for use in climate impact assessment. Parameter uncertainty is assessed using the GLUE methodology. Given the lack of source code available for the model, parameter sampling is carried out using Latin hypercube sampling. Uncertainty bounds are constructed for model output. These bounds will be used to quantify uncertainty in future simulations as they include error derived from data measurement, model structure and parameterization.