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Electric Distribution Systems Planning with Fuzzy Loads
Author(s) -
Matos M.A.,
Leão M.T. Ponce
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
international transactions in operational research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.032
H-Index - 52
eISSN - 1475-3995
pISSN - 0969-6016
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-3995.1995.tb00022.x
Subject(s) - planner , probabilistic logic , computer science , fuzzy logic , operations research , service (business) , business system planning , industrial engineering , artificial intelligence , engineering , systems engineering , economics , economy
Distribution systems planning heavily depends on the predicted future consumptions in the service area. When statistical data exist about past consumptions, probabilistic forecasting methods may be applied, and expected cost/benefit and risk analysis are used to decide between different solutions. In most cases, however, this strategy is not applicable, due mainly to the lack of significant data (new developing areas, rapidly changing situations) and uncertainty of economic and social factors. In the latter case, the use of fuzzy models is an interesting alternative, accommodating expert planner's qualitative judgments about future loads and allowing us to use ‘typical’ load diagrams in new areas. The paper discusses the main concepts of electric distribution system planning when loads are fuzzy modeled, and presents an illustrative application example.