Premium
Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback
Author(s) -
Rammig Anja,
Jupp Tim,
Thonicke Kirsten,
Tietjen Britta,
Heinke Jens,
Ostberg Sebastian,
Lucht Wolfgang,
Cramer Wolfgang,
Cox Peter
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
new phytologist
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.742
H-Index - 244
eISSN - 1469-8137
pISSN - 0028-646X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03318.x
Subject(s) - biomass (ecology) , amazon rainforest , environmental science , climate change , precipitation , ecosystem , range (aeronautics) , amazonian , vegetation (pathology) , atmospheric sciences , climatology , ecology , agroforestry , geography , meteorology , biology , medicine , materials science , pathology , geology , composite material
Summary• Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. • We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). • Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m −2 for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO 2 fertilization. • The uncertainty associated with the long‐term effect of CO 2 is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO 2 on tropical ecosystems.