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FORECASTING CORPORATE REVENUE AND PROFIT: TIME‐SERIES MODELS VERSUS MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSTS
Author(s) -
Kodde David A.,
Schreuder Hein
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
journal of business finance and accounting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.282
H-Index - 77
eISSN - 1468-5957
pISSN - 0306-686X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-5957.1984.tb00757.x
Subject(s) - revenue , stock exchange , profit (economics) , time series , econometrics , specification , stock (firearms) , sample (material) , economics , corporate finance , accounting , finance , statistics , engineering , mathematics , microeconomics , mechanical engineering , chemistry , chromatography
This paper reports on the forecast accuracy of nine models which have been used to describe the time‐series of corporate revenues and profits. It also compares the performance of these models with that of management and financial analysts. All comparisons are carried out not only on the basis of prediction errors, but also by an analysis of the forecasting bias involved, and the specification of uncertainty. The data pertain to a representative sample of companies listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange.