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Developing a critical view on e‐learning trend reports: trend watching or trend setting?
Author(s) -
Boon Jo,
Rusman Ellen,
Van Der Klink Marcel,
Tattersall Colin
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
international journal of training and development
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.558
H-Index - 26
eISSN - 1468-2419
pISSN - 1360-3736
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-2419.2005.00229.x
Subject(s) - checklist , objectivity (philosophy) , trend analysis , quality (philosophy) , psychology , proxy (statistics) , computer science , cognitive psychology , machine learning , philosophy , epistemology
Trend watching reports are an indispensable resource in the e‐learning domain. Many HRD departments consider these reports as essential cornerstones for the development of their e‐learning strategy. But what is the quality of the forecasts made in these reports? In this article, several methods of forecasting trends are discussed, resulting in a checklist to evaluate the quality of trend studies. Next, this checklist is applied to evaluate some significant trend studies. The evaluation results show that the reports do not meet basic quality criteria, such as ‘sound methodology’ and ‘objectivity’. The article concludes with some critical remarks on the role trend watching reports play in the domain of e‐learning.