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Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis *
Author(s) -
Ihrig Jane,
Kamin Steven B.,
Lindner Deborah,
Marquez Jaime
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
international finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.458
H-Index - 39
eISSN - 1468-2362
pISSN - 1367-0271
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-2362.2010.01268.x
Subject(s) - economics , globalization , inflation (cosmology) , phillips curve , sign (mathematics) , output gap , macroeconomics , monetary economics , econometrics , monetary policy , keynesian economics , market economy , mathematical analysis , physics , mathematics , theoretical physics
This paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased the role of domestic factors in the inflation process in industrial economies. Towards that end, we estimate standard Phillips curve inflation equations for 11 industrial countries and use these estimates to test several predictions of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. Our results provide little support for this hypothesis. First, the estimated effect of foreign output gaps on domestic consumer price inflation is generally insignificant and often of the wrong sign. Second, we find no evidence that the trend decline in the sensitivity of inflation to the domestic output gap observed in many countries owes to globalization. Finally, and most surprisingly, our econometric results indicate no increase over time in the responsiveness of inflation to import prices for most countries.