Premium
MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY *
Author(s) -
Markiewicz Agnieszka
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
international economic review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.658
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 1468-2354
pISSN - 0020-6598
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2012.00702.x
Subject(s) - economics , volatility (finance) , econometrics , exchange rate , implied volatility , volatility swap , volatility smile , sabr volatility model , financial economics , monetary economics , environmental science
This article proposes an explanation for shifts in the volatility of exchange‐rate returns. Agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with this uncertainty by making inference on the models and their parameters' approach, I call model learning. Model learning may lead agents to focus excessively on a subset of fundamental variables. Consequently, exchange‐rate volatility is determined by the dynamics of these fundamentals and changes as agents alter models. I investigate the empirical relevance of model learning and find that the change in volatility of GBP/USD in 1993 was triggered by a shift between models.