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Sources of Output Change in the U.S. Economy
Author(s) -
MARTIN R. P.,
HOLLAND DAVID
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
growth and change
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.657
H-Index - 55
eISSN - 1468-2257
pISSN - 0017-4815
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-2257.1992.tb00944.x
Subject(s) - economics , commodity , balance of trade , structural change , final demand , balance (ability) , international economics , technical change , work (physics) , international trade , economy , macroeconomics , productivity , production (economics) , market economy , medicine , physical medicine and rehabilitation , mechanical engineering , engineering
Output changes in the U.S. economy from 1972 to 1977 are analyzed using a 477‐sector input‐output framework. The empirical model is based on benchmark data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Commodity output changes are attributed to technical change, import substitution, changes in domestic final demand, and changes in export demand. Special attention is given to the importance of international trade and the patterns of change observed in rapidly growing and declining sectors. The results indicate that 71 percent of the sectors lost domestic market share to imports, but on balance international trade contributed to positive output change through increased exports. Technology changes became increasingly important in sectors of the economy experiencing either rapid growth or decline. Conversely, final demand, exports, and import substitution generally appeared to be most important in the slowly changing sectors. These findings confirm and expand on earlier work that indicated a dominant role for technology changes in explaining output changes in emerging and declining industries.