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Metropolitan Growth and Decline in the United States: an Empirical Analysis
Author(s) -
CADWALLADER MARTIN
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
growth and change
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.657
H-Index - 55
eISSN - 1468-2257
pISSN - 0017-4815
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-2257.1991.tb00551.x
Subject(s) - metropolitan area , geography , economic geography , demographic economics , demography , socioeconomics , economic growth , economics , sociology , archaeology
Urban growth rates are documented for the largest United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas for the periods 1965–70 and 1975–80. The spatial pattern associated with these growth rates tends to reinforce the sunbelt‐frostbelt dichotomy, as the majority of cities with positive migration rates for both time periods are located outside of the heavily industrialized Northeast and Midwest regions of the country. Two and three‐group discriminant analyses indicate that manufacturing activity, local tax rates, and spending on education, are particularly important discriminators between growing and declining cities. A simultaneous‐equations framework is used to formally model the interrelationships between migration rates for SMSA's and other variables, such as income, unemployment, taxes, public spending, and housing costs. Using two‐stage least squares analysis, the estimated coefficients, and their associated standard errors suggest that the net migration equation works better for the 1975‐80 data than for the previous time period.