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Regional Indexes of Leading Indicators: An Evaluation Of Forecasting Performance
Author(s) -
KOZLOWSKI PAUL J.
Publication year - 1987
Publication title -
growth and change
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.657
H-Index - 55
eISSN - 1468-2257
pISSN - 0017-4815
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-2257.1987.tb00081.x
Subject(s) - recession , metropolitan area , economic indicator , business cycle , sample (material) , econometrics , economics , geography , macroeconomics , chemistry , archaeology , chromatography
Indexes of leading indicators are used to forecast short‐run changes in economic activity in many states and metropolitan areas. This article examines the forecasting performance of a sample of such regional indexes over several business cycles. Although these indexes vary across regions, the results show that they do provide forecasts of recessions and recoveries and also exhibit some potential for forecasting quantitative changes in regional employment.