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Towards a combined prognostic index for survival in HIV infection: the role of ‘non‐HIV’ biomarkers
Author(s) -
Justice AC,
McGinnis KA,
Skanderson M,
Chang CC,
Gibert CL,
Goetz MB,
Rimland D,
RodriguezBarradas MC,
Oursler KK,
Brown ST,
Braithwaite RS,
May M,
Covinsky KE,
Roberts MS,
Fultz SL,
Bryant KJ
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
hiv medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.53
H-Index - 79
eISSN - 1468-1293
pISSN - 1464-2662
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-1293.2009.00757.x
Subject(s) - medicine , cart , confidence interval , cohort , biomarker , poisson regression , immunology , population , mechanical engineering , biochemistry , chemistry , environmental health , engineering
Background As those with HIV infection live longer, ‘non‐AIDS’ condition associated with immunodeficiency and chronic inflammation are more common. We ask whether ‘non‐HIV’ biomarkers improve differentiation of mortality risk among individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Methods Using Poisson models, we analysed data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) on HIV‐infected veterans initiating cART between 1 January 1997 and 1 August 2002. Measurements included: HIV biomarkers (CD4 cell count, HIV RNA and AIDS‐defining conditions); ‘non‐HIV’ biomarkers (haemoglobin, transaminases, platelets, creatinine, and hepatitis B and C serology); substance abuse or dependence (alcohol or drug); and age. Outcome was all cause mortality. We tested the discrimination (C statistics) of each biomarker group alone and in combination in development and validation data sets, over a range of survival intervals, and adjusting for missing data. Results Of veterans initiating cART, 9784 (72%) had complete data. Of these, 2566 died. Subjects were middle‐aged (median age 45 years), mainly male (98%) and predominantly black (51%). HIV and ‘non‐HIV’ markers were associated with each other ( P <0.0001) and discriminated mortality (C statistics 0.68–0.73); when combined, discrimination improved ( P <0.0001). Discrimination for the VACS Index was greater for shorter survival intervals [30‐day C statistic 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80–0.91], but good for intervals of up to 8 years (C statistic 0.73, 95% CI 0.72–0.74). Results were robust to adjustment for missing data. Conclusions When added to HIV biomarkers, ‘non‐HIV’ biomarkers improve differentiation of mortality. When evaluated over similar intervals, the VACS Index discriminates as well as other established indices. After further validation, the VACS Index may provide a useful, integrated risk assessment for management and research.