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Uncertain reasoning using the Dempster‐Shafer method: an application in forecasting and marketing management
Author(s) -
CortesRello E.,
Golshani F.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
expert systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.365
H-Index - 38
eISSN - 1468-0394
pISSN - 0266-4720
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0394.1990.tb00159.x
Subject(s) - dempster–shafer theory , computer science , domain (mathematical analysis) , expert system , field (mathematics) , probabilistic logic , artificial intelligence , machine learning , operations research , mathematics , mathematical analysis , pure mathematics
The intended purpose of this article is twofold: to study techniques for uncertainty management in expert systems, particularly the Dempster‐Shafer theory of belief; and to use this method in the construction of an expert system for the field of forecasting and marketing management. Compared with the probabilistic approach, which can only deal with singleton possibilities, the Dempster‐Shafer approach proves to be superior because it provides the ability to deal with sets of possibilities. Since market analysis and forecasting always have a strong element of uncertainty associated with them, and since, in general, we consider a combination of several different forecasting techniques for planning our marketing strategies, the Dempster‐Shafer approach is particularly suitable. Here we present a short introduction to this theory, briefly discuss the domain of application (selection of forecasting techniques for marketing planning), discuss the interesting components of our expert system, and analyze our experiences in applying the theory to this domain.