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Regime Change and the Role of International Markets on the Stock Returns of Small Open Economies
Author(s) -
Bredin Don,
Hyde Stuart
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
european financial management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.311
H-Index - 64
eISSN - 1468-036X
pISSN - 1354-7798
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-036x.2007.00361.x
Subject(s) - stock (firearms) , economics , german , stock market , monetary economics , financial economics , financial market , financial integration , oil price , finance , geography , context (archaeology) , archaeology
We examine the influence of US, UK and German macroeconomic and financial variables on the stock returns of two relatively small, open European economies, Ireland and Denmark. Within a nonlinear framework, we allow for time variation via regime switching using a smooth transition regression (STR) model. We find that US (global) and UK and German (regional) stock returns are significant determinants of returns in both markets. Further, global information represented by oil and US asset price movements drive changes between states in each market. Significantly, the role of country‐specific domestic variables is typically confined to a single state while global and regional variables pervade all states.