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China and the UK Economy
Author(s) -
Wiley-Blackwell Publishers
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0319.2004.00457.x
Subject(s) - boom , china , pillar , economics , oil boom , government (linguistics) , chinese economy , economy , macroeconomics , political science , linguistics , philosophy , structural engineering , environmental engineering , law , engineering
China's boom has been a major pillar of the global economic recovery from early 2002 onwards. However, earlier this year fears that the economic boom was threatening to run out of control prompted the Chinese authorities to implement a number of targeted measures to try to restrain activity in the most overheated sectors. This article by Simon Knapp discusses both how much the UK has benefited from the China boom and how much it might be affected if the Chinese slowdown now becomes a hard landing. It argues that emerging Asia, Japan and raw materials producers have been the principal beneficiaries of the China boom, while the UK's gains have been small, because exports to the whole of Asia only account for 9% of the total. Equally, looking forward, the UK, and the UK's two major trading partners, the US and Eurozone, would only be relatively lightly affected if Chinese growth decelerated rapidly, as they would be helped by offsets such as lower oil prices and a lower interest rate profile. However, the current evidence suggests that the Chinese economy is slowing down in broadly the way the government wants, with the greatest deceleration in the previously overheated sectors but relatively little impact on the export and consumer sectors. An abrupt halt in bank lending could, however, still pose a significant downside risk.