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Author(s) -
Dicks Geoffrey
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0319.1993.tb00316.x
Subject(s) - trough (economics) , quarter (canadian coin) , publishing , economics , agricultural economics , demographic economics , history , political science , macroeconomics , law , archaeology
Suddenly the recovery is with us. After two months in which manufacturing output rose 2.5 per cent, there are few who doubt that a sustainable recovery is under way. While it is unlikely in the extreme that manufacturing will continue to grow at the rate of January‐February, an annual rate of 15 per cent, and equally likely that there will still be some bad months, almost no one is dismissing the recent experience as another ‘false dawn’. With retail sales rising steadily, and industrial surveys registering a marked upturn in business confidence, it would appear that the Chancellor's green shoots' are finally with us. Indeed, when the CSO conies to date the trough of the present cycle, it is likely to put it in the second quarter of last year. If this is the case, the first year of recovery will have been particularly weak, reminiscent of the experience in 1981‐2 when the trough of the cycle was in February 1981 but it was not until late 1982 that a convincing recovery was under way. Given the apparent similarity between these two episodes, we draw comfort from the fact that (non‐oil) GDP rose 1.3 per cent in 1982 and 2.8 per cent in 1983, in line with our February forecast of 1.3 per cent growth this year followed by 3.2 per cent in 1994.