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Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0319.1991.tb00644.x
Subject(s) - economics , inflation (cosmology) , recession , unemployment , current account , monetary economics , keynesian economics , macroeconomics , exchange rate , physics , theoretical physics
Half way through 1991, there is still no firm evidence that a recovery is under way, though equally the recession does not appear to be worsening. This suggests that the economy is close to a turning point, bumping along the bottom, and that a recovery should begin in the second half. For the year as a whole we expect GDP to fall 2 percent followed by only a modest 1.5 per cent growth in 1992. Unemployment is likely to rise for at least another 12 months, reaching a peak of 2.8 million. The reduction in inflation and the trade deficit are continuing. By the end of the year retail price inflation is likely to be below 4 per cent and for 1991 as a whole the current account deficit should be around 1 per cent of GDP, well down from the 1989 peak of 4 per cent.