Premium
THE TREASURY'S BUDGET
Author(s) -
Currie David,
Dicks Geoffrey
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0319.1991.tb00641.x
Subject(s) - treasury , economics , inflation (cosmology) , neutrality , deficit spending , monetary economics , macroeconomics , finance , debt , political science , physics , theoretical physics , law
This year's Budget not only marked the end of Thatcherism, it also pointed to a shift in power back towards the Treasury. Mrs. Thatcher's favoured approach on local finance, child benefit and mortgage tax relief were unceremoniously dumped and replaced by the Treasury emphasis on fiscal neutrality and marginal tax rates. We discuss what this might mean for future Budgets. The Treasury forecast is extremely gloomy, predicting a 2 per cent drop in output this year. We remain more optimistic and, as in February, expect a revival in consumer spending to lead the recovery over the next few months. Despite our stronger output forecast, we endorse the Treasury view that inflation and the current account deficit will fall sharply this year.