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Inconsistencies in Macroeconomic Data
Author(s) -
EGGINTON DON
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0319.1991.tb00634.x
Subject(s) - simple (philosophy) , reliability (semiconductor) , economics , econometrics , national accounts , computer science , macroeconomics , philosophy , power (physics) , physics , epistemology , quantum mechanics
In recent years large inconsistencies have appeared in the national accounts, causing a number of problems for forecasters and policy‐makers. This paper briefly summarizes these problems and discusses some of the responses available to improve the statistics. It focuses on a simple mathematical procedure which can provide coherent accounts even when the reliability of the data which is being balanced is unknown. Some of the main results of applying such a procedure are then outlined and these are compared with the CSO's recent balanced accounts exercise. The paper concludes that, although the broad macroeconomic picture for real (as opposed to financial) variables is little changed by balancing, continued balancing exercises would be worthwhile because they reduce the uncertainty surrounding forecasts and hence policy‐making.