Premium
Forecast Summary
Publication year - 1987
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00359.x
Subject(s) - pace , economics , inflation (cosmology) , stock (firearms) , crash , stock market , stock market crash , monetary economics , emerging markets , inflation rate , interest rate , macroeconomics , geography , context (archaeology) , physics , archaeology , geodesy , theoretical physics , computer science , programming language
Led by manufacturing industry, output has accelerated and GDP growth approaching 4 per cent is likely this year. But strains are emerging and we expect slower growth from now on. Over the medium term GDP is forecast to rise at a sustain‐ able 3 per cent rate, nearly 31/2 per cent for non‐oil output. This should enable the reduction in un‐ employment to continue, though at a slower pace than in the last year. Against a background of rising activity, we expect inflation to remain at its present underlying rate of about 4 per cent and the current account deficit to settle at about £2bn p.a. We show in the Focus how this forecast might change if the stock market fails to recover from its mid‐October crash