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Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00412.x
Subject(s) - economics , inflation (cosmology) , exchange rate , inflation rate , point (geometry) , monetary economics , interest rate , current account , econometrics , mathematics , physics , geometry , theoretical physics
The lower exchange rate offers UK industry a remarkable competitive advantage in world markets which, we believe, will be expanding rapidly over the next two years. As domestic demand is also likely to be strong in the run‐up to the General Election, output is forecast to rise 3 per cent both next year and in 1988. But, even so, the short‐term supply response is not expected to be sufficient to prevent the current account from recording a large deficit next year. Excess demand pressures also point to a higher rate of inflation from now on. We forecast a steady increase in inflation to 3¾ Aper cent by the end of next year and a peak of 4½ per cent in late 1988.