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Medium term Prospects for the UK economy
Author(s) -
KEATING GILES
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00750.x
Subject(s) - economics , inflation (cosmology) , outcome (game theory) , economic interventionism , wage , monetary policy , government (linguistics) , boosting (machine learning) , intervention (counseling) , term (time) , interpretation (philosophy) , yield (engineering) , medium term , raising (metalworking) , economic policy , macroeconomics , market economy , microeconomics , political science , politics , law , philosophy , materials science , mathematics , psychiatry , linguistics , theoretical physics , computer science , psychology , geometry , quantum mechanics , machine learning , metallurgy , programming language , physics
Prospects for the economy several years ahead are even more uncertain than projections of the near future. e overnment policy is currently particularly uncertain e iven that a general election is due to occur in the next 15 months. This article presents three ‘alternative scenarios’, one based on Conservative Party policies, the others on the spirit of Labour Party policies. The first case described is our central forecast. It is a continuation of current Conservative Party policies. The second and third cases are based on our interpretation of Labour Party policies. These policies are assumed to involve widespread use of government intervention, planning, wage and import controls. Monetary targets are relaxed or abandoned. We consider two possible out comes of such policies. Under one outcome the policies are relatively successjul in boosting output and employment without greatly raising inflation. Under the other out comes, output is lower than on current policies and inflationt much higher.