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Author(s) -
Dicks Geoffrey
Publication year - 1982
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00770.x
Subject(s) - recession , argument (complex analysis) , economics , publishing , inflation (cosmology) , business cycle , great recession , keynesian economics , economic history , political science , law , medicine , physics , theoretical physics
Over the lastfive years events in the United States have been repeated throughout the OECD area, with a lag of 6–12 months. A repeat of this pattern in I982 would mean that the recovery in Europe and Japan, which has been progressing slowly since the middle of last year. would not last into 1983. The present forecast excludes this possibility. The argument, which we have put previously, is that the US recovety of 1980 was premature and that the current recession Jollows a renewed attempt by US policy‐makers to reduce inflation. There are already signs that they will be succes & Consequently we do not expect the US recession to be prolonged In the second haIfof the year we expect an expansion of output to be in progress, both in the US and elsewhere; in the next few months, however, world activity is likely to remain subdued.