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Assumptions
Publication year - 1982
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00723.x
Subject(s) - economics , current account , fiscal policy , politics , monetary economics , macroeconomics , finance , political science , exchange rate , law
We continue to make our best guesses about likely policy developments rather than assuming ‘unchanged’ policies. In particular we assume that the Budget in the spring of 1983 will give greater weight to the political objective of cutting income tax than to maintaining the fiscal and monetary limits set by the Medium‐Term Financial Strategy (MTFS). We therefore expect the PSBR, after falling below the planned level in the current financial year, to rise above the target jigure in the 1983‐4 and 1984‐5 financial years. We expect sterling M3 growth to mirror this and to be siightly below the upper end of its target range for the current financial year, slightly above in the following two financial years. The MTFS does not cover the period beyond 1984‐5. We assume that the broad objective of reducing the PSBR is continued in 1985‐6 and 1986‐7. despite the expected overshooting of targets in earlier years.