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Measuring business cycles in the R ussian E mpire
Author(s) -
Owen Thomas C.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
the economic history review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.014
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1468-0289
pISSN - 0013-0117
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0289.2012.00673.x
Subject(s) - business cycle , boom , economics , great divergence , index (typography) , stimulus (psychology) , economic history , economy , keynesian economics , monetary economics , market economy , political science , china , engineering , law , environmental engineering , world wide web , computer science , psychology , psychotherapist
Newly available data on Russian commerce, industry, finance, incorporations, labour, and investment allow a fresh approach to two historical puzzles: the dating of cyclical peaks and troughs in R ussia during the six decades before the First World War and the evaluation of theories advanced to explain the causes of these cycles. A diffusion index and a composite index establish the dates and amplitudes of seven complete cycles from 1855 to 1909 and part of an eighth, in 1910–13, interrupted by the F irst W orld W ar. The influence of wars and the Revolution of 1905 on the Russian cycle is clear. A comparison of diffusion indices for R ussia and G ermany reveals that R ussian cycles occasionally diverged from the European pattern in the absence of war and revolution, notably during the industrial boom of the 1890s. The new findings give qualified support to the contention of several Soviet economists in the 1920s that this divergence resulted, at least in part, from the monetary stimulus of exports, primarily of grain.