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Probabilities as Similarity‐Weighted Frequencies
Author(s) -
Billot Antoine,
Gilboa Itzhak,
Samet Dov,
Schmeidler David
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
econometrica
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 16.7
H-Index - 199
eISSN - 1468-0262
pISSN - 0012-9682
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00611.x
Subject(s) - similarity (geometry) , mathematics , statistics , econometrics , computer science , artificial intelligence , image (mathematics)
A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity‐weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case.