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PRICE DYNAMICS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND ANTICIPATED SHOCKS IN A TOURISM ECONOMY
Author(s) -
CHAO CHICHUR,
HU SHIHWEN,
LU LEEJUNG
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
pacific economic review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.34
H-Index - 33
eISSN - 1468-0106
pISSN - 1361-374X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2012.00587.x
Subject(s) - tourism , economics , foreign exchange , open economy , small open economy , monetary economics , destinations , international economics , exchange rate , political science , law
Using a dynamic model of an open monetary economy, this paper examines the effects of tourism‐related anticipated shocks on goods prices and foreign exchange reserves. Foreign tourists consume mainly non‐traded goods in holiday destinations, converting them into exportable goods. This gives rise to a tourism terms‐of‐trade effect that affects the accumulation of foreign exchange. Announcements of anticipated events bring tourist visits forward, resulting in an initial under‐adjustment or an over‐adjustment in the prices of the non‐traded goods when the tourism terms‐of‐trade effect is positive or negative. This leads to an increase or a decrease in foreign reserves in the long run.