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Are Short‐lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long‐Lasting Jobs? *
Author(s) -
Cockx Bart,
Picchio Matteo
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
oxford bulletin of economics and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.131
H-Index - 73
eISSN - 1468-0084
pISSN - 0305-9049
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00668.x
Subject(s) - counterfactual thinking , spell , unemployment , duration (music) , quarter (canadian coin) , economics , labour economics , demographic economics , displaced workers , stepping stone , term (time) , psychology , macroeconomics , sociology , history , social psychology , art , physics , literature , archaeology , quantum mechanics , anthropology
This article assesses whether short‐lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long‐lasting jobs (enduring 1 year or more) for Belgian long‐term unemployed school‐leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi‐spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school‐leavers accepting a short‐lived job are, within 2 years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long‐lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short‐lived jobs.