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Testing Steady‐State Restrictions of Linear Rational Expectations Models when Data are Highly Persistent *
Author(s) -
Juselius Mikael
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
oxford bulletin of economics and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.131
H-Index - 73
eISSN - 1468-0084
pISSN - 0305-9049
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2010.00629.x
Subject(s) - rational expectations , cointegration , econometrics , steady state (chemistry) , forcing (mathematics) , economics , state variable , state (computer science) , mathematics , mathematical economics , thermodynamics , physics , mathematical analysis , chemistry , algorithm
Steady‐state restrictions are commonly imposed on highly persistent variables to achieve stationarity prior to confronting rational expectations models with data. However, the resulting steady‐state deviations are often surprisingly persistent indicating that some aspects of the underlying theory may be empirically problematic. This paper discusses how to formulate steady‐state restrictions in rational expectations models with latent forcing variables and test their validity using cointegration techniques. The approach is illustrated by testing steady‐state restrictions for alternative specifications of the New Keynesian model and shown to be able to discriminate between different assumptions on the sources of the permanent shocks.