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Are Weekly Inflation Forecasts Informative? *
Author(s) -
Amstad Marlene,
Fischer Andreas M.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
oxford bulletin of economics and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.131
H-Index - 73
eISSN - 1468-0084
pISSN - 0305-9049
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00523.x
Subject(s) - inflation (cosmology) , core inflation , economics , core (optical fiber) , construct (python library) , schedule , econometrics , estimation , monetary policy , macroeconomics , inflation targeting , computer science , telecommunications , physics , management , theoretical physics , programming language
Abstract Are weekly inflation forecasts informative? Although several central banks review and discuss monetary policy issues on a bi‐weekly basis, there have been no attempts by analysts to construct systematic estimates of core inflation that supports such a decision‐making schedule. The timeliness of news releases are recognized to be an important information source in real‐time estimation. We incorporate real‐time information from macroeconomic releases and revisions into our weekly updates of monthly Swiss core inflation using a common factor procedure. The weekly estimates for Swiss core inflation show that it is worthwhile to update the forecast at least twice a month.