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The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought *
Author(s) -
Bun Maurice J. G.,
Klaassen Franc J. G. M.
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
oxford bulletin of economics and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.131
H-Index - 73
eISSN - 1468-0084
pISSN - 0305-9049
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00448.x
Subject(s) - economics , gravity model of trade , econometrics , panel data , gravity equation , international economics , bilateral trade , geography , archaeology , china
Existing studies on the impact of the euro on goods trade report increments between 5% and 40%. These estimates are based on standard panel gravity models for the level of trade. We show that the residuals from these models exhibit upward trends over time for the euro countries, and that this leads to an upward bias in the estimated euro effect. To correct for that, we extend the standard model by including a time trend that may have different effects across country‐pairs. This results in an estimated euro impact of only 3%.